Daily Report

On Thursday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.2 percent. The Treasury Department said yesterday that the U.S. federal government ran $65 billion into the red in November, up 14 percent from the same period last year when the deficit was only $57 billion. Economists had expected a $68 billion deficit for November. The current fiscal year-to-date deficit stood at $201 billion. Furthermore data showed yesterday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to a five-month high last week, but this likely does not signal a deterioration in the labor market as the underlying trend remained consistent with tithening conditions.

Global stocks hit, euro shines after ECB stimulus misses expectations

USDJPY TECHNICALS: Bulls Focused On Channel Top *RES 4: Y124.97 Rising daily channel top *RES 3: Y124.20 Bollinger band top *RES 2: Y124.17 High Aug 20 *RES 1: Y123.76 High Nov 18 *PRICE: Y123.28 @ 0530GMT *SUP 1: Y123.10 Hourly support Nov 19 *SUP 2: Y122.90 Hourly support Nov 16 *SUP 3: Y122.64 Rising daily channel base  *SUP 4: Y122.21 Low Nov 16 *COMMENTARY: The bounce from last week's low and from ahead of the rising daily channel base has resulted in fresh 3 month highs with bulls remaining focused on the rising daily channel top around Y124.97. The Y122.90 support remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the channel base around Y122.64. Overall a close below the 200-DMA (Y121.34) is needed to target a deeper correction.

miniNasdaq Momentum Analysis

The Ninja Trader Momentum Analysis
Review of miniNasdaq 100 (NQH08) 2/28/2008

The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 1,831.25. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 1,831.25. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 1,843.25 area.

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This analysis shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.7912. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.


This review is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading involves a high degree of leverage, which allows for large returns, but also large losses. Due to the high degree of risk you should carefully consider whether commodity trading is appropriate for you. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Ninja Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

The Ninja Trader Swing Trading System

The Ninja Trader Swing Trading System
Nikkei 225 2/27/2008

The diamond symbols identify a trade signal. Long term trends shown as Red and Green Highlights. Blue highlights identify Swing trends

Divergence Signals
Today's price range constitutes a valid long term trend.

Long Term Trend

Currently in Permission Long Mode.

Swing Trend

Currently in Permission Long Mode

*Definition of Long Term Trend and Swing Trend.

Swing Trend 1 - 7 Days.
Long Term Trend 7 - 90 days

This review is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading involves a high degree of leverage, which allows for large returns, but also large losses. Due to the high degree of risk you should carefully consider whether commodity trading is appropriate for you. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Ninja Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

One of the most powerful trading strategies traders like to employ is to enter and exit of trades using new highs and new lows over a certain period of time. An example what traders would do is to sell on a new 20-day low and buy on a new 20-day high. This allows one to trade on the daily chart without having to follow the market throughout day. The key is this strategy is to only trade in the direction of the trend as that is where you will find some of the biggest moves.

Review of IPE BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES 2/25/2008

Ninja Trader Momentum Indicators
Review of IPE BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES 2/25/2008


Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. My review shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.7800. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 77 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.


This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities or futures trading. The Ninja Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

Part I: Trend Following

How do you know if a market is trending?

My recent survey done with fellow traders shows that a trend could be spoken of as....

1. A price move in the market over any specific period of time.
2. A series of new highs and higher lows or of new lows and lower highs.
3. Trending indicator showing a long or short signal.
4. Up-move or down-move.
5. Elliott Wave formation.
6. Astrological occurrence.
7. Fundamental news item.
8. My stockbroker’s next hot tip on a stock.
9. My coin flipping strategy.
10. My throw-a-dart-on-the-“stock” board strategy….

While some are humorous, some foolish, and others technical, which, if any, is correct?

Well, based on dictionary definition:
The relatively constant movement of a variable throughout a period of time. The period may be short-term or long-term, depending upon whether the trend itself is short-term or long-term.

For example, a rising market is taken to mean that prices of most stocks are in an upward trend.

So there you have it, the definition of a trending market!

Happy Trading!